Davydenko rolls Murray; Djokovic next in Masters Cup final

Tennis Betting Lines

11/15/2008 - Shanghai, China (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Andy Murray's sky-high ride to the lucrative Tennis Masters Cup semifinals came to an abrupt end Saturday, as Nikolay Davydenko closed strong in both sets to reach the final at the $4.45 million season-ending tournament.

Murray, coming off a dramatic and emotional three-set victory over Roger Federer on Friday, started on solid footing in both sets, but couldn't withstand a fierce Davydenko barrage late. The Russian downed Scotland's young star, 7-5, 6-2.

The round-robin format brought plenty of casualties to the courts in Shanghai, leaving Murray the only player unscathed entering Saturday's semifinals. Murray went 3-0 to win the Red Group, while Davydenko finished 2-1 in the Gold Group, with a loss earlier in the week to Serbian Novak Djokovic, who will be his opponent in Sunday's final.

The Australian Open champion Djokovic rallied to down Frenchman Gilles Simon, 4-6, 6-3, 7-5 in Saturday's other semifinal. Simon finished 2-1 in Red Group play, and like Murray, defeated Federer at the beginning of red-round play.

Federer's stunning exit still permeated the event on Saturday. It was the first time the Swiss superstar hadn't reached the semifinals at the season- ending event in seven tries.

Murray was to thank for that, yet the Scot's fortunes changed on Saturday. Davydenko used a powerful first serve and broke through on 2-of-8 break chances to steal the opening set. Murray was below 50 percent on his first serve and had just one break opportunity in the first set.

The second set was a tidal wave of Davydenko forehands and flawless play. He was a perfect 8-for-8 on first-serve point opportunities and didn't face a break over his four service games.

Djokovic's trip to the finals was slightly more arduous in a match that extended to nearly three hours. Simon was nearly unbeatable with his first serve in the opening set, winning 13-of-14 first serve points. He won just 1- of-6 break chances, but it was good enough to take the set.

The second set was a complete 180-degree turn, as Djokovic had all of the break opportunities, and like Simon, he converted on just one. However, also like the Frenchman, the one break was good enough to force a third and deciding set.

Three double faults from Simon in the third set weighed heavily on his service games, and Djokovic took two breaks to slip into the winner's circle.

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Numerous College Basketball teams take final big step to March Madness betting

So, what turned on the lock spigot? Well, after what felt like weeks of teams treading water and slipping back into the bubble muck, a bunch of them finally decided to say "to heck with parity" and won games that should put them into the Big Dance.

Disagree with some of these? Then here's the challenge. Take all of the "should be ins" and make a legit case that each should be ahead of the team that's a lock. Then find 10 more teams that also should be placed in the bracket ahead of that lock team. Not so easy, is it?

If you want more evidence that these locks should be good to go, check out what our research department dug up. Since the NCAA Tournament went to 64 teams in 1985, only six teams from a "big six" conference have had a record of 10-6 or better in conference play and not been selected: Colorado (2004) and Nebraska (1999) from the Big 12, Boston College and Seton Hall (both 2003) from the Big East, Indiana (2005) from the Big Ten and UCLA, which somehow went 12-6 in the Pac-10 in 1988 and still missed out. (Note: Five teams went 11-7 and didn't get in, the latest being last season's Stanford team, which had a brutal nonconference run.)

Yes, 10 conference wins doesn't always mean what it used to because of unbalanced schedules, but this season, it should be plenty good in all but the extreme cases (see: Iowa).

In a way, this is a welcome development, because this is a bubble watch, not a lock watch. We can finally be done with teams like Maryland and Virginia Tech and start really bearing down on at-large battles such as Syracuse-West Virginia and Appalachian State-Georgia Tech.

Interestingly, all the shifting of teams into lock status appears to be more administrative than impactful. The number of remaining available at-larges didn't change one iota. The only difference is that teams on the bubble now have a clearer idea of which team(s) they are competing with for those precious bids.

The Bubble Breakdown
CONFERENCE LOCKS SHOULD BE INS AT-LARGES TAKEN
(assuming no auto bid outlier)
ACC Betting Odds 6 0 5
Big East Betting Odds 5 0 4
Big Ten Betting Odds 2 2 3
Big 12 Betting Odds 3 0 2
Pac-10 Betting Odds 5 1 5
SEC Betting Odds 4 0 3
MVC Betting Odds 1 1 1
MWC Betting Odds 2 1 2
TOTAL 28 5 25

As always, I've tried to be as inclusive as possible while only including teams that would have a reasonable chance of at least being discussed if this were Selection Sunday. If your team's not on here, there's probably a good reason (or three) -- start with the RPI and SOS numbers and work your way down.

(Please remember, per selection committee criteria, that records displayed are Division I only. Next update: Feb. 28)

If you have a legitimate grievance, or just like talking bubble, send an e-mail. Polite ones with fact-based arguments have a much better chance of receiving a response. I apologize in advance if I can't get back to all of you.

Atlantic Coast Conference

Work left to do: Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech

The ACC moves to six locks as BC, Va Tech and Virginia all got their 10th ACC wins, which should be more than enough this season, and Maryland rallied past North Carolina to get the final piece the Terps needed. After that? It could end there unless FSU, Ga Tech or Clemson picks things up in a hurry.

 

Work left to do:

Clemson [19-9 (5-9), RPI: 41, SOS: 42] The Tigers are closer to locking up the collapse of the year award (in a good battle with OK State) than they are to grabbing an at-large. Clemson's been very competitive, but there's no really positive way you can spin nine losses in 11 games. They now cannot get to .500 in ACC play and still must head to Virginia Tech in the season finale (after hosting Miami). Unless the Tigers win both and/or do some serious work in the ACC tourney, they very well could be left out. There are no great nonconference wins, but ODU, App State, Miss. State, South Carolina and Georgia are all respectable W's.

Florida State [18-11 (6-9), RPI: 48, SOS: 14] The Noles got thrashed at Maryland to run their losing streak to five, but then pounded NC State at home to set the table for what likely is an elimination game at Miami. You can at least make a case for the Seminoles at 7-9 in ACC play (and some work in the ACC tourney), but 6-10 is not going to cut it. Wins at Duke and over Florida will resonate, but the computer numbers remain questionable. Beyond Florida, FSU thrashed bubble buddy Providence, but there's not a ton beyond those two games that will help. They didn't show well in big-time opportunities against Pitt and Wisconsin (before the Florida win).

Georgia Tech [18-10 (6-8), RPI: 51, SOS: 46] The Jackets beat Wake on Wednesday but couldn't get it done at UVa on Saturday, which could be a crucial loss with UNC and BC (both at home) remaining and 8-8 almost a certain need for at-large consideration. A nonconference win over Memphis helps, but the RPI and SOS are not at-large quality right now; if you combine those with a sub-.500 ACC mark, that could spell NIT for GT.

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